Pregame prediction state, community vote lean, matchup drivers, and trend context.
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Middlesbrough vs Derby predictions cover EFL Championship (England), Regular Season - 19 on 5 Dec 2026. Kick-off is listed for Saturday, 5 December 2026 at 13:30 CET. This preview brings together the prediction lean, community voting, recent form, head-to-head notes and team context in one place. The page is built to give a pre-match read before team news, odds movement and late updates can change the picture.
The current prediction split is Middlesbrough 59%, Draw 32%, Derby 9%, giving Middlesbrough the clearest lean before the other matchup factors are considered.
Recent form gives the first matchup clue: over the last five, Middlesbrough have taken 11 points while Derby have taken 2. That comes from Middlesbrough taking 3 wins and Derby taking 0 wins in that span. Goal trend sits at Middlesbrough +3 and Derby -5.
Season and schedule context add season pace at Middlesbrough 2.1 points per game versus Derby 0.6, venue split at 2.6 home points per game against 0.8 away points per game, and rest days at Middlesbrough 52.7 and Derby 51.7. These details help separate a simple prediction percentage from the rhythm each team brings into the match.
Recent head-to-head context lists Middlesbrough 3 recent H2H wins, Derby 2 recent H2H wins, and 1 draw, which adds rivalry history without treating older meetings as more important than current form.
Underlying team metrics add chance creation score at Middlesbrough 10.3 versus Derby 7.1 and clean-sheet rate at 20% against 10%, giving the prediction a check against chance creation, defensive resistance and match-control signals.
The prediction trend contains 4 trend points, showing how the pre-match view developed before the current prediction read.
